Reference News Network reported on November 21 Japanese media said that the signal that the global economy has once again stalled has become clearer. Although the actual growth rates of Japan, the United States and Europe rebounded rapidly in the third quarter, judging from the latest data, the trend of dull growth momentum is obvious enough. Although there are positive trends such as the stock market rise and the upward adjustment of corporate performance expectations, the spread of new crown pneumonia is advancing at a speed far exceeding that of the spring. The flow of personnel has slowed again and is casting a shadow over the economic outlook.
According to a report by Nihon Keizai Shimbun on November 20, in a shopping mall in Paris, the French capital, at this time in previous years, in order to welcome the arrival of Christmas, the toy store that had been crowded for a long time was now surrounded by a quarantine zone with no entry. Economic activities that have just restarted had to be interrupted again due to the return of the epidemic. French Prime Minister Castel announced on the 12th that the lockdown measures will last at least 15 days.
According to reports, the reduction in the number of people going out is bound to reduce consumers' desire to buy. Statistics from the US Mourning Consulting Company show that the French National Consumer Confidence Index has reached a new low in the second half of the year in November, a decrease of about 10% compared with a month ago, and is close to the level when the first wave of the epidemic raged in April.
Germany has implemented an incomplete lockdown order including the closure of catering facilities from November 2. As the number of newly diagnosed cases remains at an average of 20,000 per day, it is not known when the lockdown will be lifted. German Chancellor Merkel told the public on the 16th: "Limiting travel is the secret to success, and we have more to do."
In the United States, New York State has required all restaurants to close at 10 pm starting on the 13th. California also introduced emergency restrictions on the 16th, raising the lockdown level of 41 counties, which account for 94% of the population, to the highest level.
The report pointed out that consumption, which is already weak in recovery, will inevitably be affected. "Opportunity Insight", a non-profit organization formed by researchers from Harvard University in the United States, compiled an index of consumption changes before and after the epidemic based on credit card swiping records. The index shows that dining out and lodging consumption only recovered to 70% of the pre-epidemic consumption, and entertainment consumption was only 50%. The service industry, which is most vulnerable to the ban, is clearly depressed.
