The ventilators in the Indian city of Pune ran out and coronavirus patients were panting, making the hospital overcrowded. Social media is full of people looking for hospital beds, while relatives are looking for antiviral drugs that the hospital has run out of in numerous pharmacies.
It is shocking to see this phenomenon across India, as the country is a major vaccine producer and a key supplier to the UN-supported COVAX program. The plan aims to help some of the poorest countries in the world. The increase of coronavirus patients has forced India to focus on meeting its domestic demand and has delayed deliveries to COVAX and other places (including the UK and Canada)。

Northeastern University vaccine expert Brooke Baker said India's decision“means that there is almost nothing, and there is even nothing left for COVAX and everyone else to use”.

Pune is the worst-hit city in India, but other major metropolises are also facing a crisis, as the number of new infections every day has reached a record level. Experts say that the mistaken belief that the epidemic has "passed" which in turn troubled the country again.

In September, when infections in India began to plummet, many believed that the worst was over. Masks and social distancing have been abandoned, but the government has made accurate predictions about the degree of risk.

"No one has a long-term view of this epidemic," Dr. Vinita Barr said,who studies the immune system at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research in the city.She pointed out, for example, that instead of strengthening existing hospitals, temporary places were established. In Pune, the authorities are restoring these temporary facilities, which were crucial to the city’s fight against the virus last year.

India is not alone. Many countries in Europe where cases have fallen are experiencing new surges, and infection rates have been rising in every global region, partly due to new virus variants.

In the past week, India had an average of more than 130,000 cases per day. Since the beginning of the pandemic, it has now reported 13.5 million cases of the virus. Its case fatality rate has surpassed Brazil and second only to the United States. The death toll is also on the rise, and has already surpassed the 170,000 mark. Experts say that even those numbers may be underestimated.

Infection rates in almost all states are on the rise, and Pune City (4 million people) has only 28 unused ventilators left because of its more than 110,000 virus patients on Monday night.

The country now faces the huge challenge of vaccinating millions of people while tracking thousands of people infected every day and preventing the collapse of the health system.

Dilnaz Boga has been in the hospital in recent months to visit a sick relative and witnessed this happening firsthand as the number of cases started to increase. The bed suddenly became unusable. The nurse warned tourists to be careful. Posters suggesting that you wear a mask are everywhere.

Then, earlier this month, Boga and her 80-year-old mother tested positive. The doctor advised her mother to be hospitalized, but initially there were no beds. She and her mother are now recovering.

The fact that more and more people worry about this situation is that the country’s vaccination campaign may also be in trouble: even if the federal government insists on having sufficient stocks, several states in India have reported shortages of vaccines.

In the western Indian state of Maharashtra, home to Pune and the financial capital of Mumbai, the country has been infected with nearly half of the new infections in the past week. Due to shortages, some vaccination centers in the state shut people out.

At least six Indian states have low inventory levels, but Health Minister Hash Wadhan called these concerns "a sad failed attempt by some state governments to distract attention."

Concerns about vaccine supplies have led to criticism of the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which has exported 64.5 million doses to other countries. Representative Rahul Gandhi of the main opposition Congress Party asked Modi in a letter whether the government’s export strategy was “propaganda at the expense of its citizens”

Now, India has changed direction. Last month, COVAX stated that it had delayed the shipment of up to 90 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine due to the Serum Institute of India’s decision to prioritize domestic demand.

The institute is headquartered in Pune and is the world's largest vaccine manufacturer. If the new coronavirus infection subsides, it can restart the export of vaccines by June. But continued growth may cause more delays.

Experts warn that India may just be considering this.

They suspect that the most likely reason behind this pandemic is the existence of more infectious variants. Health officials confirmed last month that 80% of infections in the northern state of Punjab were caused by the version of the virus first discovered in the UK. There is also growing concern about another new and potentially troublesome variant that was first discovered in India itself.

Krishna Udakuma, founding director of Duke University's Global Health Innovation Center at Duke University, said that India needs to vaccinate faster and take measures to stop the spread of the virus. He said: "India is very dangerous in the coming months."

However, some people say that the government’s messy message fails to convey this risk.

Modi pointed out that people need to wear masks because of the rising “alerts” of infection. But in the past few weeks, during the campaign, he gave a speech in front of thousands of maskless supporters.

The federal government also allows large gatherings to be held during Indian festivals (such as Kumbh Mela) or during the pitcher festival celebrated in Haridwar in the Himalayas, where millions of devotees holy infiltrate the Ganges every day. The state’s chief minister, Tirat Singh Rawat, responded to concerns about the event that might turn into a “super spreader”, stating that “belief in God will overcome the fear of the virus”.

"Optics are so important, we totally messed up," said Dr. Shahid Jameel, who studies viruses at Ashoka University in India.

Dozens of cities and towns have implemented partial restrictions and night curfews to curb the infection, but Modi has ruled out the possibility of a nationwide blockade again. He also rejected calls from states to require young people to be vaccinated.
At the same time, experts said that the current quota for providing vaccines to people over 45 years old should be relaxed, and the number needs to be increased in areas where there is a surge.