The latest macroeconomic update unveiled by the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) today revealed gradual economic recovery, with improvements in remittance inflows, balance of payments and gross foreign exchange reserves and narrowing trade balance.

The remittance inflows surged 24.2 per cent to Rs 903.39 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year (mid-July to mid-April) against a decrease of 0.2 per cent in the same period of the previous year.

Total trade deficit narrowed by 17.1 per cent to Rs 1,083.23 billion during the nine months of 2022-23. Such a deficit had surged 28.5 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

During the nine months of 2022-23, merchandise imports slumped by 18.1 per cent to Rs 1,201.51 billion against an increase of 32 per cent a year ago. But worryingly, the merchandise exports also plunged by 26.3 per cent to Rs 118.28 billion against an increase of 69.4 per cent in the same period of the previous year.

As per the broad economic categories (BEC), the intermediate and final consumption goods accounted for 55 per cent and 44.3 per cent of the total exports respectively, whereas the ratio of capital goods in total exports was negligible at 0.6 per cent in the review period. In the same period of the previous year, the ratio of intermediate, capital and final consumption goods had stood at 47.2 per cent, 0.02 per cent and 52.7 per cent of total exports, respectively.

On the imports side, the share of intermediate goods remained at 53.3 per cent, capital goods 8.3 per cent and final consumption goods at 38.3 per cent in the review period. Such ratios were 53.2 per cent, 10.5 per cent and 36.3 per cent, respectively, in the same period of the previous year.

Balance of payments (BoP) - the difference between all money flowing into the country in a particular period of time and the outflow of money to the rest of the world - remained at a surplus of Rs 180.17 billion in the review period compared to a deficit of Rs 2.25 billion in the same period of previous year.

Meanwhile, the current account - country's imports and exports of goods and services, payments made to foreign investors, and transfers such as foreign aid - recorded a deficit of Rs 51.82 billion in the review period compared to a deficit of Rs 510.58 billion in the same period of the previous year.

The gross foreign exchange reserves increased 14.8 per cent to $10.94 billion in mid-April, 2023 from $9.54 billion in mid-July, 2022.

Based on the imports of nine months of 2022-23, the foreign exchange reserves of the banking sector is sufficient to cover the prospective merchandise imports of 11 months, and merchandise and services imports of 9.4 months.