The ongoing third Covid wave led by the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is about to end in Nepal, as cases of new infections have reduced to a few hundreds.

On Monday, 388 people tested positive for Covid-19.

Both the severity and hospitalisations from the infection have declined of late and active cases throughout the country stand at 11,282 on Monday, which lowest since January 13.

The Ministry of Health and Population on Monday said that 139 patients are being treated in intensive care units and 19 patients are on ventilator support in various hospitals throughout the country.

Public health experts, epidemiologists as well as virologists say that the decline in new cases, hospitalisations and severity show that the ongoing third wave of the pandemic is all set to end soon.

However, they say that time has not come to give up the fight, as more deadly variants of the virus could emerge at any time. Experience shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, that causes coronavirus, keeps mutating.

“With the decline in new cases after the second wave of the pandemic, we all heaved a sigh of relief and normalcy was returning, but the third wave eventually hit the country,” Dr Biraj Karmacharya, an epidemiologist told the Post. “Even if the number of new cases has declined, time has not come to give up the fight against the virus.”

Experts say that the decline in new cases is an opportunity for the authorities concerned to make preparations for another surge. They say that a lot of weaknesses, which were identified during the first, second and the third wave of the pandemic could be minimised or overcome by making ample preparations now when Covid caseloads have declined.

“Authorities should ramp up the vaccination pace, provide booster shots as early as possible and strengthen the health systems,” added Bajracharya, who is also the head of Community Medicine Programme at Dhulikhel Hospital.

So far, 18,497,689 people or 63.4 percent of the total population have been fully immunised with Covid-19 vaccines.

As of Monday, 906,533 people have received the booster shots.

“Authorities should take the decline in cases as an opportunity and start preparations for another possible surge or the new wave,” said Dr Sher Bahadur Pun, chief of Clinical Research Unit at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital. “Pandemic exposed both our weaknesses and strengths. Now is a good time to address our weaknesses.”

In the first wave of the pandemic, the country faced logistical problems to deal with the virus. In the second wave, the government lacked vaccines as well as testing kits, oxygen and others.

The magnitude of the second wave this year was more severe than the first wave last year, largely due to the lack of preparations. That the country has a fragile health system was just validated when people were turned away by hospitals for a lack of beds, ventilators and oxygen. Over 5,600 people died in the ongoing second wave of infections.

In the third wave of the pandemic, the infection spread rampantly in communities. Before the authorities concerned could take any preventive measures, communities were already under the grip of the virus.

It has been proven that Omicron, the highly contagious variant of the coronavirus, entered the country prior to the World Health Organisation flagging it as a variant of concern.

Measures like testing and contact tracing, which according to public health experts, are key to controlling the pandemic, were not employed during the third wave. Like during the first and the second wave of the pandemic, quarantine and isolation facilities were not set up in the third wave because cases were widespread.

“The virus variants may not be mild like Omicron every time, and the Coronavirus pandemic is neither the first nor the last,” said Dr Kishor Pandey, an infectious and tropical disease expert, who is also an associate professor at the Central Department of Zoology at the Tribhuvan University. “Along with strengthening health infrastructures, authorities should continue active surveillance.”

Doctors say authorities should continuously monitor if cases surge in some clusters and remain vigilant about any unusual spike in cases.

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, data management has been an issue, which was not sorted out even after the third wave of the pandemic,” said Dr Prabhat Adhikari, an infectious disease and critical care expert. “Time has come to shift the focus to other public health issues also, which we cannot overlook for a long time.”